Q4 2025 Marketplace Snapshot: Sports, Shopping, and Smart Strategy

The final stretch of the year always brings a flurry of activity, and this Q4 is no different. From live sports to holiday shopping to healthcare open enrollment, advertisers are entering one of the busiest and most opportunity-filled seasons of the year.

Lockard & Wechsler Direct’s Q4 2025 Marketplace Conditions Report highlights how brands can make the most of this moment by balancing reach, precision, and performance across the ever-evolving video landscape.

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Sports Bring Linear Growth

After a quieter summer, live sports are giving broadcast and cable a noticeable lift. In August, broadcast climbed to 19.1% of total TV usage and cable to 22.5%, thanks to college football matchups drawing audiences in the millions.

Streaming still dominates nearly half of all TV usage at 46.4%, with Prime Video and Netflix leading the way. But we know that live sports and big cultural moments keep linear TV essential for scale.

Takeaway: Lean into live sports and seasonal tentpoles to capture high-impact audiences, especially in Q4 when sports deliver some of the year’s strongest linear impressions.

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The Total Video Balancing Act

CTV continues its rapid rise, now accounting for 40% of total TV ad spend and on track to surpass linear by 2027. But that doesn’t mean linear is fading away. It remains the go-to for high-impact reach, especially during Q4 when sports and holiday specials drive double-digit gains in impressions.

Takeaway: Do not pick a side. Blend the strengths of both. Use linear for broad awareness and CTV for precision and reinforcement to maximize performance across the funnel.

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Tight Inventory, Smart Planning

As expected, Q4 inventory is tight. Healthcare and pharma are flooding daytime and news dayparts during open enrollment, while retail and nonprofit advertisers are competing for premium holiday spots. Live sports inventory, locked in during the Upfronts, is seeing higher CPMs, and kids’ networks are packed with seasonal ads until late December.

Still, opportunities remain. The last few weeks of the year often open up valuable last-minute scatter buys, especially for agile advertisers ready to move quickly.

Takeaway: Plan early but stay nimble. Monitor scatter markets and be ready to act on late-breaking inventory opportunities that can drive incremental reach.

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AI and Smarter Video Performance

AI is reshaping how campaigns are built and optimized, helping brands buy smarter, measure faster, and personalize creative at scale. Combined with first-party data, AI is becoming the key to more efficient targeting and stronger ROI across all video environments.

Takeaway: Use AI to enhance, not replace, your strategy.

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Holiday TV: The Shopper Connection

Nearly one in three CTV viewers say both streaming and traditional TV ads help them find holiday gift ideas, a reminder that shoppers are engaging across every screen. The most effective brands are blending their video, digital, and social campaigns to inspire, inform, and convert throughout the season.

Takeaway: Connect your video and digital efforts for a full-funnel holiday strategy, using TV to drive discovery and online channels to close the sale.

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Looking Ahead

Between record ad spend, evolving viewing habits, and rising inventory pressure, Q4 2025 promises a fast-moving marketplace with big potential for those who plan smart.

At LWD, we help brands navigate that complexity by combining data, technology, and total video strategy to drive meaningful results when it matters most.

Takeaway: Success this quarter will come from balance, pairing smart media planning with flexible execution to capture both reach and responsiveness in a crowded market.

Get the full report below to stay ahead as we head into the new year!